Rush to Blame

Our hearts and prayers go out to those affected by the recent Texas flooding. It was truly a cataclysmic and unforseeable event. Those hurt are in our prayers such that the good Lord might provide comfort and healing to those involved and that their pain might be lessened.

Like most Americans, we were disgusted and dismayed by media coverage of this event; before victims could be recovered, media sources were latching on to alleged lapses in warning, lack of sirens in rural areas, choices of campsites, etc. Our staff—and we believe most Americans—viewed the natural event as cataclysmic and well beyond anything mankind could have reasonably expected. Not unlike a sudden earthquake, tidal wave, rapidly developing tornado, a wing falling off a well maintained and inspected airplane, or even terrorist attack. The river rose more than 26 feet in less than one hour while most were asleep. This is over 3 times as much as a dangerous hurricane storm surge. Water is heavy stuff, and is ruthless in what it can wipe out.

Frankly, we find this rush to judgment baffling. Bad things happen in life; Mother Nature is ruthless. Sometimes bad things happen to good people and they just HAPPEN—no one is to blame, nothing really could have been done to prevent it. To make sense out of it, we turned to staff psychologist Longus (‘Gus’) Schwanz:

”In the ‘Monday morning quarterbacking,’ arena there are basically two camps. The first is one which is exploitative in nature; we often see this in the aftermath of mass shootings. They have an agenda, and see the tragedy as an opportunity to advance their agenda. They don’t care one whit for the welfare of people or making anything better—they are cold, callous, and simply want to push their agenda. These people are often politicians and media outlets—and are some of the worst miscreants we know. In the Texas tragedy they latched onto the ‘warning’ gig pretty much immediately. While coverage of the Carolina disaster was suppressed under president Biden, these types saw an opportunity to go after political opponents as if somehow this could have been prevented (it couldn’t). Ultimately they’ll probably morph into the ‘climate change’ scam angle, but they saw an opportunity to hammer a rival by alleging negligence where no negligence was present.

The second camp is those affected by grief wanting to displace their strong feelings into what they might believe might help others in the future. While no one can find fault in their motivations, because these feelings are very strong they aren’t particularly rational. And they are very vulnerable to miscreants pushing an agenda—“grasping at straws” to assuage their feelings. Certainly there ARE positive outcomes that can come of a rational response to a tragedy (fr’ instance the development of a better motorcycle helmet after a fatal collision of a loved one) but it’s essential to take time, deal with the grief, and ensure that rationally any action taken actually does make things better.

Riverside cabins are beautiful and people build there to take advantage of the ambience and the good this promotes in the human psyche. Stress kills people; being able to retreat to a serene setting is hugely beneficial both physiologically and physically. Waterfront property indeed tends to be very expensive. Of course, flooding is and always should be a concern and consideration when building and the builder has to assess whether this is likely to be a factor given all available information.

In THIS particular instance while the specific area had some flooding close to 100 years ago, there was no indication in recorded history that a river event of such devastating magnitude was likely to occur. Indeed the incident free history of that particular site coupled with assessment through regulatory officials and experts (to include an approved emergency plan within a year of the flood occurring) indicated with best available technology and information the site was safe. We’ve no shortage of nanny state rules, regulation, reports, and evaluation and all of this at the time indicated all was well.

Several attention seeking pundits harped on the lack of a ‘warning system’ and how this idea was at the time (rightfully) rejected. It’s not so much of a cost-benefit issue but an information overload issue. Any of the ‘warning systems’ proposed were of a widespread and general warning and none of them were capable of specifically targeting a discrete position. Texas is full of warning sirens and giant voice in urban areas, as well as constant EBS broadcasts over radio, cell phones, and electronic devices. People are bombarded with general warnings constantly; to the extent of becoming desensitized to them. A general flood warning for Tarrant County is useless to the individual on higher ground which seldom—if ever—floods. Should that particular site be projected to flood due to unique circumstances, its beyond system capability to notify THOSE PARTICULAR individuals who will be affected. Even with the severe storms/tornado sirens (the easiest condition to track), except with a very well defined severe storm track, there is very limited capability to assess exactly what and where is going to be hit while providing enough time to do something about it. The best that can be hoped for is a general alarm be sent out to areas where the storm might be going and individuals pull up a radar picture and have a look for themselves. And these alarms can do harm; when they’re issued out of an ‘abundance of caution’ people very quickly become desensitized to false alarms.

One can see this mentality pervading modern society. The concept that by making a maze of rules, procedures, and laws it can forstall bad things from happening. It’s not new in the human psyche; just shifted a bit. Cultures used to practice human sacrifices for good crops and the psychological concept is the same. Namely that we as humans have more control over the situation than we do and if we go through rituals (or write rules) it will keep the gods of chance at bay.

I’m not saying that lessons learned, laws, or warning systems are ALL bad. I’m saying that by compiling laws on top of laws and sending out warnings out of an ‘abundance of caution’ one usually makes the situation worse. A good example is your car owner’s manual or the various extraneous warnings your car has (things like mandated seat belt dingers, lane change beepers and stick shakers) actually make the situation more unsafe. Most owners manuals are loaded with useless exclamation points and warnings as to make them unusable — and detracting from the REAL warnings that one need heed. If someone doesn’t want to wear one’s seat belt he or she doesn’t need an uncancelable and loud warning horn. Moreover, these are often silenced by buckling the belt behind the operator to reduce erroneous warnings (like some situations where someone doesn’t want to belt in due to unique circumstance) and then forgetting to unbuckle it and use it later. The choice by the operator has been removed resulting in a distracting and unsafe environment. And REAL alarms (low oil quantity, low oil pressure, engine overheat, low tire pressure) get masked by false alarms.

Same as for the flurry of proposed legislation following some sort of mass shooting. The only thing that can stop a mass shooter is to be fought with equivalent force to stop him or her. No proposed rules or laws would ever stop a criminal who’s going to operate outside of the law to begin with. In fact, encouraging MORE capable individuals to be trained and armed to stop a miscreant is desirable, and encumbering that makes the situation worse. “Gun Free” zones serve only to identify target rich environments to a bad guy, decrease the probability that a bad guy will be stopped, and strip those who might follow the rules from the opportunity to defend themselves. The rule itself makes the situation more dangerous.

Yet people irrationally flock to the rule. Why ?

The mind is a fascinating thing. It’s great at rationalization and projection. Occasionally it falls into the trap that if it makes up more rules or procedures that OTHER people or circumstances will follow them. The logic to the victim’s mind makes sense; if I make and follow these rules I’ll be safe. If I make these rules for others they’ll follow them and I’ll be safe. It seeks safety in illusion and rationalizes it to itself. Remember that under CBT the mind seeks survival and security above all else; and it can talk itself into believing self-made rules and rituals can save it from harm. This is a form of insanity yet one that’s extremely popular. TSA is a good example of this; it contributes nothing to reducing the threat from miscreants aboard an airplane yet calms some peoples minds that a threat that might in reality be there isn’t there anymore.

As far as to who’s to blame for the tragedy on the river it’s no one. And any source trying to assess blame should be viewed as either mentally unwell, a dupe, or miscreant. An unforseeable natural event resulted in tragedy and could not have been reasonably mitigated by anything available.

For lessons learned, it’s POSSIBLE some form of natural disaster or weather warning system might be devised which credibly notifies ONLY those who are about to get hit with the specifics of the situation. Present systems are wholly inadequate in that they’re broadband alarms and not selectively targeted by those very likely to be affected. To have any meaningful impact on natural disaster warning, any EBS system must be capable of selective targeting and not issue false alarms. Receiving information overload through continuous false alarms is worse than having no alarm at all.

And one must resign oneself that unforseeable bad things are going to happen. The matrix of what can hurt people is so vast and unpredictable that one can’t go through life obsessing over bad things that might hurt you. If one does, I guarantee you that the stress of so doing WILL kill you. Be prepared for potential events, have equipment that helps ready you, do training with whatever might mitigate risks, look for traps when building and mitigate them, stay happy, and get out and live life. Lastly, when you hear a Monday morning quarterback spouting off ‘woulda, coulda, shoulda’ nonsense, turn off the tube and disregard everything that person has to offer.”

We think Gus is spot on and thank him for his perspective.