Given the perceived multitude of recent accidents and incidents, several of our clients have approached us wondering if air travel is getting more dangerous, and if so, why ? Our staff at D-J is careful in advising not to frame opinions based on media sources–in that these are easily manipulated and tend to sensationalize events. Creating perception (often agenda based) rather than objectively reporting. In particular, we advise clients if they have a media source whose FIRST resort is to advocate more rules, laws, or regulation (or oversight by a governmental entity–or have confidence IN such an entity) they should probably get their news elsewhere.
Humans have a few ways to make decisions; some based on a thorough and objective rational analysis, some based on fear (Covid was a good example of this), some based on adventure, some on basic instinct or biological drive, some seeking guidance from God, some seeking an adrenaline rush, some based on reflex or trained reaction (including muscle memory), some based on intuition of our brain, some (like singing and music) made from unconscious and semi-conscious brain functions, and some having some combination of all of the above. MOST decisions are NOT made after a careful or objective rational analysis (nor would we argue they should be–such an analysis has significant collateral costs in terms of time, money, and effort and by so doing would hamper most decisions we have to make on a day by day basis).
This becomes a trap when what should be a rational decision is made by simplified and trite risk diversion philosophy (usually using silly or meaningless phrases, sound bytes, or statistics–or reliance on others of questionable credibility). One of these is the ‘decarbonization’ mentality (not based on rationality but on some faceless straw man claiming that if mankind bridle carbon use the climate won’t change or he can control the earth’s temperature–wholly false). Another is often in flying. Where people (including experienced pilots) pontificate that the “drive to the airport” was far more dangerous than the flight they are about to undertake.
Is it ?
Not really; it depends on what kind of flying one is going to do, what type of airplane, weather conditions, route of flight, crew composition, airline/carrier/pilot/risk mitigation of the particular operator, what traffic conditions are actually like on the way to the airport as well as car type, etc. There are times where flying is definitely MUCH MORE dangerous than driving. And even conditions where flying on an air carrier can be more dangerous than a person making the trip in a car. But in general flying is pretty safe, and the chance of a collision on a highway (with another car or other structure) is USUALLY somewhat more than the chance of being involved in an aircraft accident on a major carrier. But again it depends on weather, type of airplane, route of flight, crew training level, etc. As well as road conditions, routing, traffic, car type, etc. for the drive.
So why do people get afraid of flying ? Most of it has to do with the lack of control over destiny. As a driver you know yourself and your car–these are within your field of control (other traffic might not be but how YOU maneuver your car is). You know how your car is maintained, its fuel state, YOUR physical condition, where you can stop for gas, that you CAN ‘pull over’ if things get bad (which you can’t do in an airplane), and its maintenance condition. You will typically know none of that as a passenger on an airplane (and no certification entity of the airplane or crew can provide definitive assurance they will conduct the flight prudently and safely on that particular trip). Airplanes move in 3 directions rather than 2, so getting used to the unique motion of airplanes is new to some (and no one likes heavy turbulence). If you fly your own airplane, this eliminates most of the lack of control issues–but can create others in that most light planes are NOT designed to operate in weather conditions where some larger airliners can. And have varying degrees of dealing with weather which is usually the greatest threat on any given trip. For the most part, most of the ‘panic’ fears are unfounded and not supported by any physical evidence.
Our founder has flown millions of miles all over the world–and done so since 1987. He has never been involved in any major aircraft accident or incident. He hasn’t even had an engine quit on a commercial airliner (he has on military aircraft, but those engines were older and under more strain than the newer commercial aircraft engines). Despite getting shot at and flying in combat, he’s only had one instance of bending metal (a fatigued nosegear strut resulted in collapse in flight with corresponding failure of gear extension; and the only damage there was a new prop and some sheet metal work; a non-event).
He’s also driven perhaps a million miles in his lifetime (give or take). He’s had a couple of minor fender benders, but no major accidents in his car and no injuries.
So from that anecdotal evidence, driving is no less dangerous than flying.
But we know that’s not true in trying to make a decision for YOU–YOU aren’t him. And aren’t as skilled/lucky/blessed/under the same circumstances as HIM.
So what to do ? Intuition would say trust your gut. And is often right.
But as humans we love analytical models (which are only as good as the data put in; look at the numerous failures of the ‘climate change’ models for a doomsday that will never happen). So perhaps we turn to statistics.
As Samuel Clemens (aka Mark Twain) once said, “There are lies, damned lies, and statistics.”
Here at D-J we believe him completely correct.
One of the problems with statistics are they are often manipulated for propaganda purposes, for ‘feel good I’m OK and safe purposes,” or even with the best intentions non-inclusive of necessary factors which give a false ‘conclusion’ — that YOUR situation will be the same as the statisticians study which usually it isn’t.
We aren’t want for lack of data regarding the probability of being in an accident on a commercial carrier. Considering the millions of travelers the chance of being in a crash are extremely remote and likely akin to being struck by lightning (which also happens–as a side note commercial aircraft are routinely struck by lightning–our founder has been hit 6 times or so–but usually mitigation measures on the non-composite airframes render it a non-event other than the excitement of the lighting strike). It doesn’t ‘deep dive’ into the survivable accidents very much as to what your chances are in 23B, but one can get this information via research. For those wondering the best place to sit, that’s impossible to guess; you’d have to know what kind of crash you were going to be in and if you knew that it’d be silly to get on the flight in the first place. Same reason to ALWAYS carry a firearm everywhere; you never know when you might get into a fight where your gun is needed and if you did you wouldn’t leave the house that day. Our suggestion being it be near an exit row for in a survivable accident (if the fuselage remains intact) in that it’d really suck to survive a crash and be killed by the smoke that follows; be able to get out. And that you carry a gun, knife, and flashlight everywhere you go.
Given our intrepid founder’s example, and that he’s likely got around 5 million + miles in the air (likely more–that’s based only on flight hours and average groundspeed; commuting time is impossible to estimate–and wasn’t done– and none of that involves leisure travel), if the NEXT accident (in the car or in the air) happens, he’s roughly an order of magnitude (10x) safer flying vice driving–on a per-mile basis.
But most aviation statistics aren’t figured that way; they’re figured in terms of departures (i.e. takeoffs and landings). Given the same statistics, he’s far safer driving rather than flying. Having had no accidents of severity and many short trips to the store.
What aroused our interest in the topic was the seeming increase in the number of accidents, incidents, and reportable events. Our staff is still crunching the numbers to figure out if things are REALLY worse, or we are simply getting more emphasis and information on the crashes and close calls (which we don’t know yet). Intuitively, there HAVE been alot of strange goings on lately–most of which we can’t relate to a single cause. A tragic midair (the most impossible to predict of ALL aviation events), a crash on landing of a regional (which thankfully all walked away from), several engine failure and smoke and fume events–any of which are serious. Numerous technical failures. Lastly, an attentive Southwest crew prevented a loss of all aboard by well executing a last minute (‘aw shit !’) go around and handling their aircraft in an exemplary manner (through a pretty aggressive and very well executed pull up and a pouring on of the coal). The latter having some similarities to the DCA midair over situational awareness issues of the Flexjet crew and lack of proactivity by ATC–which might down the line go into DEI issues on the part of hiring procedures by the Biden administration.
And two engine failures within a week where the engine was afire on landing. It was this that got our attention. Namely FedEx and the most recent American accident at Denver (where to us it looks like the flight attendant crew did an exemplary job of evacuating the airplane; particularly in keeping the fire-side exits closed–preventing the cabin from filling with smoke and fire, NOT deploying the wing slides (which would have lead passengers into the smoke and fire) and getting everyone safely off the airplane.
Our founder flew the F and EF-111. There was a time when (due to improper installation of compressor stator seals) the TF-30s developed an engine harmonic vibration which eventually caused several fatigue related compressor blade failures (one of which threw a compressor blade into the aft fuel cell where the aircraft was successfully recovered albeit leaking copious quantities of fuel). One crew wasn’t so lucky when a turbine blade (hot section) failure threw a blade into an aft fuel cell which duly ignited. Thankfully, both ejected successfully.
One of the more difficult things to address as a pilot is what happens if the emergency systems DON’T work. Although wacko environmental marxists have banned Halon-1211 and Halon-1301 (phenomenal firefighting compounds that don’t leave that dry chemical dust everywhere–we’re hopeful that Trump’s EPA will reverse this), aircraft still have it (albeit REALLY expensive–buying it from existing stocks) as a nacelle firefighting compound for engine fires. We’re assuming (perhaps wrongly) that the pilots actioned the QRH and in the case of Fedex isolated the engine and blew at least one bottle. In the case of American, again we’re assuming the crew followed the ‘engine severe vibration’ checklist and at least isolated the engine which was required by QRH–and would have shut off the fuel both at the engine and at the spar valve. Either one SHOULD have stopped a fuel-fed fire. And pilots are dependent on aircraft emergency systems to actually work when an abnormal situation exists.
But apparently neither one did. That’s a problem; engine fires were common during the piston and early jet era, but are largely unheard of today. And if it was a case of blade throwing (through two different types; a CF-6 and a CFM-56 variant), the answer is probably elsewhere; perhaps in short-profit intent of airline, maintenance, and FAA oversight.
China airlines flight 120 suffered a major fire after landing at Naha, Okinawa. It’s somewhat similar to American at Denver; a bolt from the flap track came loose and embedded within the flap system; on retraction it somehow punctured a wing fuel cell pouring fuel into the engine area and igniting an unstoppable fire (the fire handles or isolation switches are only capable of stopping fuel at the engine fuel control and spar valve and can’t stop a punctured tank). Luckily ground crew and a successful evacuation resulted in all aboard surviving.
Keshawndra Johnson–one of our principals–is extremely concerned over what seems a ‘weird’ shift in the paradigm of air safety. Accordingly, she has tasked our group toward getting to the bottom of this. She’s not a flyer — and despite the suggestion of our founder and also our good friend bandleader Richard A. “Swingin’ Dick” Long to wait a bit — has tasked our group to immediately look into (in her words) “What the F… is going on !!!” (she doesn’t mind our relaying her prose in a public forum; she’s not woke). And she’s keenly aware of our continuing assessment that there is a ‘zenith’ on the safety curve between the application of rules, regulation, and SOP; and the diametrically opposed region of judgment, intuition, and basic airmanship that is now coming into play. And Keshawndra is approaching this from the viewpoint that short-sighted profit taking, acquisitions of airlines away from ethical founders and into that of hedge fund managers (devoid of real pilots who love aviation), lack of corporate ethics , DEI mentality (who might suppress–and even fire– real, capable, competent, and aggressive aviators with judgment and experience who go against the party line or even speak plainly from time to time–even if that speaking is outside of a work environment) , ‘Woke’ corporations and hiring practices, etc–are drawing a blood line, crashing airplanes, and killing people. And getting aviators away from flying airplanes and being capable pilots; becoming a mere number and button pusher.
Our good friend Richard “Swingin’ Dick” long agrees. In his words: “I’ve flown a ton of different airplanes; from fighters, to trainers, to commercial aircraft. In fighters we had to KNOW the checklist and critical items; we were often single piloted and simply flying the airplane was enough to keep us busy–no checklist is gonna save you if you run the jet into rocks; while we could refer to the IFG (in flight guide) picture doing that at night, in the weather, and while getting shot at. When I went to the airlines it was ALL about checklists; then again we had a crew to work with things…but then again there was time we had to throw away the checklist and fly the airplane — new pilots aren’t taught that. A good example of that was Southwest who had the engine explode, take out the cowling, poke some holes in the cabin, depressurize (losing a passenger) and have to divert into Philly. Everything is happening right now and really quick. The right seater was looking for checklists, the left seater (a woman for what it’s worth) said effectively (and rightly) “put that damn thing away–I know what I’m doing we gotta land right there right now–now pull me a flaps 8 speed and set up the approach so we can get this thing on the ground.” That’s the kinda gal I want in the left seat. I’ve seen alot of different checklists — the Boeing seem to be the best. They give binary choices (‘Is landing imminent–yes/no’) and step you through accordingly. The reason why they’re the best is when you’re under stress, higher brain functions become impaired. When the adrenalin kicks in (rightly) higher brain functions don’t work as well as they might otherwise and you become focused on physical things (like flying the airplane)–the brain decides that automatically and there’s nothing you can do about it. It’s like looking for that fine front sight in a gunfight; if you’ve BEEN in a ton of gunfights it’ll work. If not, I’ll take my XS big dot any day which focuses my scared brain toward what I’ve gotta shoot at.
Some of the WORST checklists I’ve seen in my life have been from the Europeans. A reason why Air Transit 236 dumped fuel overboard with a fuel leak (rather than having basic airmanship that the first thought with a fuel imbalance might be a fuel leak–and NEVER open a crossfeed or transfer until one knows they aren’t leaking fuel– they chose to transfer their fuel to the leaking side overboard rather than using common sense. The accident board gave them an ‘atta boy’ for the dead stick landing after pointing out they wouldn’t have gotten into the situation were it not for their own buffoonery). They think their rules and esoteric thinking will solve any problem; we as pilots know that isn’t true.
I taught on the PC-24 for awhile; great jet. One of the major problems is its checklist gives you ‘War and Peace’ for most of the (supposedly single piloted) emergency situations one might face. And subtilely imbeds very important information in esoteric notes well after the fact that one might need to action the situation. It was nuts; thinking a pilot could read through a novel in trying to action a QRH. Knowing that when one was stressed, higher brain functions are heavily impaired and one NEEDS a binary checklist in that kind of situation. Fortunately, through training we could distill this unworkable QRH into relatively simple actions solving the problem and that folks could leave the place well prepared for any likely emergency intuitively knowing what to do. I’m grateful for that experience, and looking forward to our next gig in western Pennsylvania !”
At D-J we’re the best in the business; our founding group alone–amongst 3 individuals–has a combined century and a half of aviation experience piloting airplanes in combat and the civil sector. Even without counting our good friend “Swingin’ Dick” (a master aviator in his own right). But from a CRM perspective we have to understand that Keshawndra is probably right–we really could use MORE input into how the aviation industry in America is becoming less safe. While we might have our own postulations we certainly could use the input of a statistical expert. And we want a disinterested party to give us an opinion.
As such, we’re proud to announce we’ve hired as a consultant the world renown Dr. Penace Schwanz to our team to assess and provide data to the D-J team as to the apparent change in the safety culture of aviation in the US. “Penn” (hailing form Switzerland) is an expert in economics, aviation, accident investigation, psychology (having his PHD from the University of Munich), and human factors.
Over the next three months, our team at D-J — along with professor Schwanz — will be assessing the present state and recommendations towards future safety in Aviation. It’s an exciting time for us so please stay tuned !
Diatomaceous-Johnson 